Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 1.516454 1.720564 1.938245 2.187261 2.463811 2.761082 3.104365
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 1.287774 1.575298 1.901893 2.298719 2.766124 3.297375 3.945015
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 1.082099 1.422229 1.832286 2.359227 3.014166 3.796865 4.798000
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.958042 1.348590 1.846726 2.521154 3.401785 4.503057 5.973407
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.789735 1.193385 1.738814 2.517190 3.584610 4.980186 6.922517
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.666448 1.079691 1.670286 2.556685 3.829788 5.564688 8.073442
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.555832 0.965894 1.585641 2.563023 4.031167 6.112795 9.233995
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.488573 0.906870 1.572834 2.671962 4.391430 6.917559 10.828929
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.425876 0.844274 1.545572 2.755523 4.723948 7.715462 12.490230
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.365735 0.774940 1.497080 2.798826 4.999123 8.454299 14.131914
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.316523 0.716040 1.457352 2.851199 5.294366 9.250976 15.931554
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.260835 0.632996 1.361321 2.792624 5.397732 9.752125 17.310462
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.209819 0.550030 1.255469 2.709001 5.462148 10.218984 18.716543
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.177997 0.501485 1.209044 2.731195 5.719653 11.037820 20.782629
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.147852 0.449127 1.145444 2.710707 5.896943 11.736705 22.710073
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.131499 0.426963 1.143581 2.816818 6.329764 12.931227 25.601597
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.106959 0.375933 1.066368 2.751171 6.416353 13.502904 27.434694
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.089832 0.340464 1.019010 2.743928 6.620711 14.313102 29.767387
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.074404 0.304933 0.964039 2.710321 6.765315 15.020976 31.965504
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.065984 0.289190 0.957564 2.790877 7.164863 16.260728 35.259790
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.057882 0.271775 0.943035 2.849524 7.522476 17.445946 38.534227
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 0.049781 0.251338 0.915557 2.870952 7.797648 18.484841 41.594777
2025-05-11 00:00:00+00:00 0.043199 0.234217 0.894248 2.905368 8.107010 19.619694 44.925384